BIMCO’n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re Wuhan, \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, \u015fu anda IMO 2020’nin ek yak\u0131t maliyetleri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc yak\u0131tlara ge\u00e7i\u015fle m\u00fccadele eden nakliye end\u00fcstrisi i\u00e7in en k\u00f6t\u00fc zamanlardan birinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. BIMCO Denizcilik Analisti Peter Sand demecinde; \u201cCoronavir\u00fcs nedeniyle \u00c7in i\u00e7in ticari talepler \u00e7ok azald\u0131. Enerji \u00fcretimi ve end\u00fcstriyel \u00fcretim talebi, \u00c7in’in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinin karantina alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00fcnden g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Vir\u00fcs sorunu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclse bile ya\u015fanan kay\u0131p geri gelmeyecektir.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
BIMCO\u2019nun Ba\u015f Denizcilik Analisti, denizcilik end\u00fcstrisindeki bu belirsizlik durumundan sonra olu\u015fabilecek 3 senaryoyu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131:<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u00c7in’deki tersanelerin bir\u00e7o\u011fu IMO 2020 y\u0131kay\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi alt\u0131nda bulunuyor ve bu s\u00fcrede kapal\u0131 tutuluyor. Clarksons’a g\u00f6re, \u015fu anda \u00c7in bah\u00e7elerinde \u015fu anda 150 gemi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriliyor. Yetkililer, konteyner ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fcnyada \u00f6nemli bir merkez olan \u00c7in\u2019de ya\u015fanan \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fc durum y\u00fcz\u00fcnden t\u00fcm lojistik zincirinin bozulma s\u00fcrecinden ge\u00e7ti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u015eu anda konteynerl\u0131 mal \u00fcreticilerinin \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fcretimi durdurmu\u015f veya daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde \u00fcretime devam ediyor halde ilerliyor. Konteyner ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 da \u00e7ekiliyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck konteyner hacimleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olan konteyner ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, alanlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Salg\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 hatlarda k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya giden gemiler ise koronovir\u00fcs etkilerinden biraz korunabildiler.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Asya i\u00e7i pazar\u0131nda otomobil imalat\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan par\u00e7alar G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya gibi yak\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerden ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in vir\u00fcs etkilerinin yank\u0131 buldu\u011fu en \u00f6nemli merkezler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. B\u00f6lgesel \u00fcreticilerin arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fcretimi yava\u015flatmay\u0131 uzun vadeli ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte uzun vadede al\u0131m sat\u0131mlar \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131lar\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in yar\u0131 mamul \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan Avrupa ve Kuzey Amerika’da de \u00fcretimin d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 olas\u0131 gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Liner Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k Coronavir\u00fcsten Nas\u0131l Etkilenir?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Liner ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131kla ilgili ilk \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc senaryosunda BIMCO’ya g\u00f6re \u015fu anda uygulanan kapasite y\u00f6netimi \u00f6nlemleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun mesafe al\u0131m sat\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkilenmeyecek. Sadece \u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerine k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 m\u00fcdahale olabilecek ve Asya i\u00e7i ticaretlerde miktarlar daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalacak.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0130kinci senaryoda ise, s\u00fcrekli yay\u0131lan karantinan\u0131n etkisiyle ge\u00e7ici olarak engellenen aktif i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc, imalat, hinterland ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve liman operasyonlar\u0131ndaki aksamalar\u0131 art\u0131racak. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck konteyner hacimleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel perakendede sorunlar olu\u015facak ve mamul mal k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kacak. Bu durumda, Asya’dan ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131ndan, \u00c7in’den ithal edilen yar\u0131 mamul mallara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan imalat\u00e7\u0131lar, \u00fcretimi ge\u00e7ici olarak keserek k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u00fcretim faaliyetlerinde bir \u00e7ukur yaratacak.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n BIMCO yetkilileri t\u00fcm senaryolar\u0131n sonunda corona vir\u00fcs etkilerinin sadece ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve normal piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na kademeli bir \u015fekilde geri d\u00f6nme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu da a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ekliyor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Kuru D\u00f6kme Y\u00fck Piyasas\u0131 Gelece\u011fi<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7in, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda t\u00fcm deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan kuru y\u00fck ithalat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %35’ini yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00c7in’in ithalat talebine yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle kuru d\u00f6kme y\u00fck ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 corona vir\u00fcsten muhtemelen sert \u015fekilde etkilenecek.\u00a0 Zaten bu alanda IMO 2020 d\u00fczenlemesinin uygulanmas\u0131 ile mevsimsellik nedeniyle azalma olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Balt\u0131k Borsas\u0131 Capesize (en b\u00fcy\u00fck kuru y\u00fck gemileri) Endeksi (BCI) Ocak ay\u0131 sonunda negatif b\u00f6lgeye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve ortalama kazan\u00e7lar 20 \u015eubat 2020 itibariyle 2.735 ABD dolar\u0131nda seyretti. Benzer \u015fekilde, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck segmentler de capesize yolunu izledi ve son aylarda k\u00e2rs\u0131z b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. Her y\u0131l \u00c7in Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131 kutlamalar\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131ktan sonra kuru y\u00fck piyasas\u0131nda toparlanma oluyor. Bu durum da piyasay\u0131 pozitif etkiliyor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Genel etkiler sebebiyle, demir cevheri ithalat\u0131n\u0131n itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olan \u00e7elik \u00fcretimi de darbe al\u0131yor, ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda mevcut seviyeye d\u00f6nmesi bekleniyor. \u00c7in’e yap\u0131lan demir cevheri ithalat armat\u00fcrlerinin \u015eubat ay\u0131nda \u00c7in i\u00e7in sabitlenmi\u015f sadece 38 kargosu bulunuyor. BIMCO verileri, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sabitlenmi\u015f 62 spot kargo oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyordu. BIMCO \u00c7in demir cevheri ithalat\u0131n\u0131n 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc bekliyor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u0130kinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck kuru d\u00f6kme mal olan \u00c7in k\u00f6m\u00fcr ithalat\u0131n\u0131n da korona vir\u00fcs kaynakl\u0131 darbe alaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Uzun tatiller ve daha yava\u015f end\u00fcstriyel \u00fcretim de k\u00f6m\u00fcrle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan enerji talebini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Vir\u00fcs etkileri Mart ortas\u0131na kadar devam ederse kuru d\u00f6kme y\u00fck ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte seyredece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ba\u011flamda in\u015faat projeleri ve end\u00fcstriyel projeler, kademeli bir toparlanmaya girmeden \u00f6nce Mart ortas\u0131na kadar yava\u015f bir tempoda seyredecek. Bu durumda, ilk \u00e7eyrekte kuru d\u00f6kme y\u00fck alan\u0131ndaki dengelenme, talep toplama yoluyla de\u011fil, azalan gemi yak\u0131tlar\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131yla olabilecek.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Azalan Petrol Talebi Tanker Navlun Oranlar\u0131n\u0131n D\u00fc\u015fmesine Neden Oluyor<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Coronavir\u00fcs, tanker navlun oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nden \u00c7in’e olan \u00c7ok B\u00fcy\u00fck Ham Ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131 (VLCC) kazan\u00e7lar\u0131, 2 Ocak’ta g\u00fcnde 103.052 dolardan 18 Ocak 2020’de g\u00fcnde 18.326 dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak, bu d\u00f6nemde bir yanda ABD de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00c7in tankeri kurulu\u015funa yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir VLCC filosunun pazara geri girmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u00c7ED’e g\u00f6re, coronavir\u00fcs sonras\u0131nda s\u0131v\u0131 yak\u0131tlar i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel talep Ocak-\u015eubat aylar\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnde 378.000 varil (bpd) oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Salg\u0131n, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in s\u0131v\u0131 yak\u0131t talebini ortalama 190.000 bpd d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak daha yava\u015f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, u\u00e7u\u015f iptalleri ve di\u011fer ula\u015f\u0131m yak\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bir ortam olu\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. IEA\u2019ya g\u00f6re ayr\u0131ca ilk \u00e7eyrekte 435.000 baz puan petrol talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de bekleniyor. BIMCO yetkilileri coronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn sadece ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak bir noktada ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan navlun oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BIMCO’n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re Wuhan, \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, \u015fu anda IMO 2020’nin ek yak\u0131t maliyetleri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc yak\u0131tlara ge\u00e7i\u015fle m\u00fccadele eden nakliye end\u00fcstrisi i\u00e7in en k\u00f6t\u00fc zamanlardan birinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. BIMCO Denizcilik Analisti Peter Sand demecinde; \u201cCoronavir\u00fcs nedeniyle \u00c7in i\u00e7in ticari talepler \u00e7ok azald\u0131. Enerji \u00fcretimi ve end\u00fcstriyel \u00fcretim talebi, \u00c7in’in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3522,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[290,291,277],"class_list":["post-3521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","tag-bimco","tag-coronavirus","tag-deniz-tasimaciligi"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"2.12.2","language":"tr","enabled_languages":["en","tr"],"languages":{"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false},"tr":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t\n